Future-climate views
Purpose
Future-climate views show how expected physical-damage loss can change under future emissions scenarios.
Inputs
- Scenarios: SSP2-4.5 (intermediate emissions) and SSP5-8.5 (very high emissions).
- Horizons: 2030, 2050 and 2100.
- Climate factors: location-specific factors from CMIP6-based projections, supplied by a specialist climate-data provider.
The scenarios are possible futures. They do not have probabilities.
Method
The model multiplies today’s expected annual loss by the factor for the location, scenario and horizon. Asset value does not change.
Example: a factor of 1.2 increases expected annual loss by 20%. A Hazard Loss of 1.00% becomes 1.20%.
To see these views, see Monitor portfolio exposure.
Outputs
Future-climate Hazard Loss for the selected scenario and horizon.
Assumptions
Limitations
These factors apply only to Hazard Loss. Climate VaR and PML continue to describe today’s climate. The factors do not estimate future revenue effects.
The current models use historical data. Future-climate views apply a factor to expected physical-damage loss only.
Forward-looking models for other metrics are planned.
Validation
Version
Applies to methodology version 1.0, September 2026.